MySTF Elo

How it works

Everyone starts at 1500. After each match both ratings move by K × margin × (result − expected), where the expected result comes from the rating gap: a 200-point favourite is expected to score about 0.76.

• K is 48 for a player’s first games and settles to 24 after 20 games.
• Bigger wins count more (×1.5 for two goals, up to ×2.5 for a rout).
• Games settled on shoot-out count as draws; walkovers are ignored.
• Community matches count half, like friendlies.

Draw chances are measured, not guessed: 20% of games between evenly-matched established players end level, falling to 2% for 450+ point gaps.

Track record: across 21,753 games between established players, the higher-rated player won 81% of decisive games.